The threat of TikTok’s ban in the United States continues to intensify and is looking increasingly likely that it may, at least initially, be banned for US users. This comes after the Supreme Court last week heard arguments regarding the law signed by President Joe Biden in April last year, outlining that TikTok needed to be sold off from its Chinese-based parent company ByteDance. Unless an agreement can be reached, the ban will come into effect on January 19.
TikTok’s argument to the Supreme Court revolved around protecting the First Amendment, which highlights that the government ‘cannot make laws that abridge freedom of speech.’ The tone of the hearing suggests that the scales are tipped against TikTok. Most justices seemed inclined to support the law, probing deeply into TikTok’s defense that the law infringes on its First Amendment rights.
The importance of TikTok usage in the US should not be ignored here, with nearly 100m users aged 18+ accessing TikTok across the US. For a platform that has historically dominated under 18-year-olds attention, this is an incredible proportion of the US population that spends at least some time on the platform.
This is unexplored waters for the US, who have no historical precedent to compare the blocking of such a significant digital platform. The threat of a ban has led to a lot of confusion as to what would transpire on January 19th. TikTok’s own counsel, Noel Francisco, expressed this in comments last week, stating that “on January 19, as I understand it, we shut down.” However, the reality is more complicated.
Should the ban take effect, TikTok will not disappear from users’ devices but will disappear from app stores. Google and Apple would face hefty fines if they did not remove the app from their app stores before the January 19 deadline. This approach restricts new downloads and updates, potentially leaving existing apps vulnerable to bugs and security breaches over time. The government might also compel internet service providers to block TikTok, complicating access further.
Despite these hurdles, users might find workarounds, like VPNs, which have been used in other countries with restricted internet access to bypass censorship. This method reflects a broader trend of tech-savvy individuals navigating around digital roadblocks. A ban may not stop everyone, but it would still likely see a significant drop in users. This would benefit TikTok’s main rivals, Meta and Google.
Many critics have highlighted the amount of money at stake in this potential ban, with plenty of investors and organizations being very interested in acquiring a highly appealing and valuable business like TikTok. Last year, TikTok received a reported $10.1b USD in advertising revenue in the US alone.
President-Elect, Donald Trump, who was initially one of the key figures pushing for TikTok’s ban, now appears to be positioned as a potential savior for TikTok. Amidst these discussions, President-Elect Trump’s potential interventions add another layer of complexity. Trump has already filed a motion calling for a temporary pause on the ban’s implementation, which would take place one day before his inauguration. However, with the promises to negotiate a deal for TikTok, the situation remains fraught with legal and political challenges.
The next few weeks will be important, not just for TikTok, but also the tech industry. The decision surrounding the ban of TikTok may set a precedent for how tech companies operate on the global stage. The implications are vast, touching on issues from corporate autonomy and user privacy to international relations and market dynamics.